As ministers arrive and this conference enters its final week, two big questions remain.
Can
the politicians seal a deal that will have long-term implications for
the health of the planet - and can the French change their hard-earned
reputation for grumpiness on an epic scale?
It has to be said that at least on this second question, things are looking very good indeed.
Everywhere
you go in this sprawling international village built in the gritty
suburb of Le Bourget, you find smiles on granite-faced security guards,
cheery "bonjours!" and, get this, they even ask if you want milk in your
tea when you order a cup!
At the Le Bourget station, you find
some of the hundreds of underprivileged teenagers recruited from the
local neighbourhoods to meet and greet the thousands who come to COP21
via the train every day.
They have been specially trained with lessons in English and attitude. They are doing a great job.
But the key to the success of this COP will not be found in the sparkling toilets (they really do!) or in the friendly smiles.
The
vital ingredient in the Paris deal lies in the personality of the
French foreign minister Laurent Fabius, who is the president of the
Conference of the Parties, the man tasked with steering this meeting to a
successful outcome.
Velvet and steel
This
imperious diplomat has been a serious global player for decades. He
glides through rooms with the confident air of a man well used to power.
Like a stern but respected headmaster, Fab is patient and
listens to all. But you sense there is real steel underneath, if
required.
The COP seems a little bit scared of him. Most of the deadlines he has insisted upon have so far been met. Very unlike the UN!
And
unlike Copenhagen, when Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen seemed at
sea with the details and the conventions of this process, Fabius exudes
knowledge and respect.
Addressing the plenary session on Saturday, he took a moment to speak "personally".
"As
all of you know I have fairly broad experience in public life, but this
is something special, this agreement is something we just cannot
postpone," he told the negotiators.
"What we are discussing is not only the climate, not only the environment - we are talking about life itself.
"I
intend to muster the experience of my entire life at the service of
success for next Friday. It is not the question of the presidency on one
side and you on the other; we all have to be moving in the same
direction."
His comments were greeted with sustained applause.
French charm
There is no doubt that Fabius and his boss, President Francois Hollande, will try their utmost to deliver a deal.
French
diplomats have traversed the world, in huge numbers in the past 12
months, meeting national leaders to try to understand their key issues.
In his speech of welcome to world leaders last Monday, Hollande showed the benefits of this diplomatic outreach.
He used some "magic phrases" that have huge significance, especially for developing nations.
He was, he said, speaking in the name of "climate justice", and "in the name of climate justice we must act!"
An
agreement must be universal, differentiated, and binding, he said.
There needs to be "a credible path to limit global warming below 2C, or
1.5C if possible," he said.
"Developed countries must take their
historic responsibilities; they are the ones who for years emitted the
largest amounts of greenhouse gases. Emerging countries must accelerate
their energy transition, and developing countries must be supported in
adapting to the impacts of climate change."
Approaching deadline
Hollande
has gone further than any leader of a developed country in reassuring
the developing world that they will not be tricked into an unfair deal
that will restrict their growth and saddle them with huge loans
masquerading as climate finance.
And in Fabius he has the ideal man to drive the Paris agreement over the finish line.
The
COP president will be able to look ministers in the eye this week, as a
vastly experienced equal, and nudge, charm or chastise them to a deal.
It could all fall apart, undoubtedly. This is the UN after all.
However,
Fabius keeps insisting that everything will be wrapped up by Thursday
to allow time for translations and revisions. The whole deal is to be
signed, sealed and delivered by 6pm on Friday!
Who knows, President Fabius may save the world and still be home in time for his tea!